Florida Governor Polls 2026
Every public poll of Jolly vs. Donalds, who paid for each one, and what the numbers actually say. Reviewed weekly.
The full race guideNo independent public poll of the Jolly versus Donalds matchup has been released since the August 18, 2026 primary. The most recent survey of the race is a Democratic internal poll, fielded August 10 to 13, that found Jolly at 46 percent and Donalds at 45 percent, a statistical tie inside its margin of error.[1] Every published poll predates the field as it stands now, as Donalds announced his running mate, State Sen. Bryan Avila, on August 25. The Cook Political Report rating change came after Avila's selection, on August 27.[11]
The polls, one by one
A poll is what a known pollster found on specific dates, so here they are, newest first, with their sponsors stated. Hart Research Associates, for the Democratic Governors Association, surveyed 600 likely voters August 10 to 13, 2026, margin of error plus or minus 4 points: Jolly 46, Donalds 45. It is a Democratic internal, released by a Democratic organization, and the one point lead is inside the margin of error.[1]
The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab, a university lab with no partisan sponsor, surveyed 848 likely voters July 8 to 17: Donalds 46, Jolly 41, margin of error plus or minus 3.8 points.[2]
Targoz Market Research, for the conservative James Madison Institute, surveyed 1,400 registered voters July 20 to 26: Donalds 45, Jolly 38 among likely voters. Its most striking finding cuts the other way: among no-party-affiliation voters, it found Jolly leading 36 to 19 with more than 40 percent undecided.[3]
Change Research, a Democratic-aligned firm polling for Freedom Project USA, found Jolly ahead 46 to 42 in mid-May.[4]
Cherry Communications, for the Florida Chamber of Commerce, a business advocacy group, found Donalds ahead 47 to 39 in early May.[5]
Emerson College Polling found Donalds 44, Jolly 39 in late March with 15 percent undecided, and UNF's spring poll found Donalds 42, Jolly 36 in late February with 17 percent undecided.[6][8]
Notice that the two sponsored May polls, with opposite-leaning sponsors, found opposite leaders. Sponsored polls cluster toward their sponsors. That is why every poll on this page carries its sponsor's name.
Why we do not publish a single average
Aggregators, which combine results from different polls, disagree with each other by about five points on the same day. RealClearPolling shows Donalds up 5, but the table of polls feeding that average would not load for inspection, so we cannot verify what is in it.[7] Decision Desk HQ last published its own average in July at Donalds up 2.[9] FiveThirtyEight does not cover this race at all; its Florida governor address redirects to ABC News. Among smaller aggregators, one showed Jolly up 1 and another showed Donalds up nearly 4 on the same August day, and one published average was built on a single poll. The American Association for Public Opinion Research cautions that averages can be inaccurate when the underlying polls share a bias, when opinion has shifted, or when firms selectively release polls.[10] With this few post-primary polls, an average is not information. Named polls with dates are.
What the race raters say
Ratings are judgments, not measurements, but all three major raters publish them with reasons. The Cook Political Report moved this race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican on August 27, 2026, writing that Jolly's ability to potentially reach out to independents and disaffected Republicans makes this a unique contest that could possibly become competitive, while noting Donalds enjoys an overwhelming financial advantage.[11] Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican in late July.[12] Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of August 18, noting Florida has not elected a Democratic governor in more than 30 years.[13] All three favor the Republican. Two of the three have moved it toward competitive.
Questions people ask about the polls
Q. Who is winning the Florida governor race?
Nobody can honestly tell you from current polling. No independent public poll has been released since the primary settled the field on August 18. The last independent poll had Donalds up 5 in July; the last poll of any kind, a Democratic internal, had Jolly up 1 in August, a statistical tie. Anyone quoting a single number as the state of this race is quoting a stale one.
Q. Why are there no new polls?
The race changed shape in late August: the primary was decided August 18, Donalds named his running mate August 25, and Cook changed its rating August 27. Pollsters have not yet published an independent survey of the settled matchup. This page is reviewed weekly and will carry the next public poll the day it lands.
Q. What is the best independent poll so far?
The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab's July poll: 848 likely voters, fielded July 8 to 17, mixed telephone and text-to-web, drawn from the Florida voter file, margin of error plus or minus 3.8 points. It found Donalds 46, Jolly 41. It was fielded more than a month before the primary.
Q. What do independent voters say?
The most informative crosstab in any poll of this race comes from Targoz Market Research, polling for the conservative James Madison Institute in late July: among no-party-affiliation voters, Jolly led 36 to 19 with more than 40 percent undecided. Florida's closed primaries mean those voters had no primary to vote in, and they are the largest undecided bloc in the state.
Q. Do polls predict the outcome?
No. Polls are snapshots of named dates, and polling professionals warn that even averages can miss when polls share a bias or opinion shifts. The earlier polls in this race carried 15 to 17 percent undecided, which is a measurement of an unformed race, not a verdict. What polls are good for is watching change over time from the same pollster.
Sources
[1] Hart Research Associates for the Democratic Governors Association, August 10 to 13
[2] University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab, July 2026
[3] Targoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, July 20 to 26
[4] Change Research for Freedom Project USA, May 13 to 16
[5] Cherry Communications for the Florida Chamber of Commerce, May 1 to 9
[6] Emerson College Polling, March 29 to 31
[7] RealClearPolling, Florida governor
[8] University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab, Spring 2026
[9] Decision Desk HQ polling average
[10] American Association for Public Opinion Research, on polling accuracy
[11] The Cook Political Report, move to Likely Republican, August 27, 2026
[12] Sabato's Crystal Ball, University of Virginia Center for Politics
[13] Inside Elections
The dates matter more than the polls.
Registration closes October 5. The polls will keep changing; the deadlines will not.
Every date and deadlineWhen a new poll lands, it lands here.
This page is reviewed weekly, every poll is named with its sponsor and field dates, and nothing on it is an average we invented.