Cook Political Report Shifts Florida Governor’s Race in David Jolly’s Direction

TAMPA, FL (August 27, 2026) – Today, Cook Political Report shifted the race for Florida Governor toward David Jolly, noting that “Democrats have a strong ticket in former GOP Rep. David Jolly and his running mate, former Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham.” The ratings shift follows a resounding primary win and a new poll showing Jolly beating Byron Donalds in November thanks to significant support from independents and Republicans.

“David and Gwen have the momentum in this race, attracting independents and Republicans in profound numbers. National observers are seeing that shift and understanding that—in this change election—Florida is ready to elect a Democrat,” said Jolly Campaign Senior Advisor Mark Riddle. “From now until Election Day, they’ll continue going everywhere across Florida, meeting voters where they are, and highlighting the stark contrast in this race between an agenda that works for Floridians and Byron Donalds’ agenda controlled by special interests.”

Jolly, a fifth-generation Floridian, is running a change campaign focused on lowering costs, stopping data centers, and ending the divisive culture wars that have broken Florida’s politics. His opponent, Byron Donalds, is aligned with Donald Trump’s disastrous economic decisions and controlled by the special interests that have sent the costs of energy, insurance, utilities, and healthcare soaring through 30 years of one-party Republican rule.

Read more below:

Cook Political Report: Florida Governor Moves From Solid to Likely Republican

[Jessica Taylor, 8/27/2026]

Quotes from Cook Political Report’s announcement:

• Democrats have a strong ticket in former GOP Rep. David Jolly and his running mate, former Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham.
• [Jolly’s] ability to potentially reach out to independents and disaffected Republicans makes this a unique contest…
• After the primary, the Democratic Governors Association released a Hart Research poll showing a statistical tie, with Jolly at 46% and Donalds at 45%.
• Jolly has doubled down on affordability concerns, which could have special resonance in a state where rising property taxes and insurance costs are also major issues.
• Trump carried Florida by 13 points in 2024, putting it roughly in line by presidential margin with other states where statewide Democratic candidates are increasingly competitive this cycle, including Texas and Iowa.
• Democrats have also had some encouraging recent successes in Florida, including winning the Miami mayoral race and flipping two state legislative districts in special elections.
• Jolly brings bipartisan credentials from his time as a Republican, as does Graham, whose late father was a popular former governor and U.S. senator.