Florida Governor’s Race is Officially a Toss-Up

MIAMI, FL (September 23, 2026) – According to the nationally respected ratings outlet Decision Desk HQ, the Florida governor’s race is officially a toss-up. It’s the first time the race has been rated a toss-up, and it comes the same week as two other respected outlets shifted the race in David Jolly’s direction, as he continues to build unprecedented momentum in the Sunshine State.

Decision Desk HQ had previously reported that Jolly was gaining ground each week. In just the last few days, both Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections also shifted the race toward Jolly, rating it as “lean Republican.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball had noted, “close polling, a bad political environment [for Jolly’s Republican opponent], and possible exhaustion with long periods of Republican leadership.”

“The Florida Governor’s race is officially a toss-up, but that won’t change our approach. David will continue to focus on reaching every voter to share the change agenda that got us here: housing, healthcare, education, and stopping data centers,” said Jolly-Graham campaign Senior Advisor Mark Riddle. “Our campaign has built a strong coalition, and that support will only grow as Floridians learn more about why David is the clear choice in this race.”

Jolly, a fifth-generation Floridian, is running a change campaign focused on lowering costs, stopping data centers, and ending the divisive culture wars that have broken Florida’s politics. His opponent, Byron Donalds, is fully aligned with Donald Trump’s disastrous economic decisions and controlled by the special interests that have sent the costs of energy, insurance, utilities, and healthcare soaring.