Inside Elections Shifts Florida Governor’s Race Forecast in David Jolly’s Direction

PINELLAS COUNTY, FL (September 3, 2026) – Today, Inside Elections shifted the race for Florida Governor toward David Jolly, noting that “early polling at the statewide and congressional district levels point to a competitive contest.” Inside Elections provides nonpartisan forecasts of political campaigns.

This news follows last week’s positive ratings shift from Cook Political Report. New polling shows Jolly leading against “polarizing” Byron Donalds with support from Independents and Republicans.

“People nationally are seeing what those of us in Florida already understand: David and Gwen are building a movement that people across the political spectrum can believe in,” said Jolly campaign Senior Advisor Mark Riddle. “Our coalition is driven to make Floridians’ lives better, and we’ll be spending now through Election Day talking to people across the state about how to make housing, healthcare, and education work for everyone.”

Jolly, a fifth-generation Floridian, is running a change campaign focused on lowering costs, stopping data centers, and ending the divisive culture wars that have broken Florida’s politics. His opponent, Byron Donalds, is aligned with Donald Trump’s disastrous economic decisions and controlled by the special interests that have sent the costs of energy, insurance, utilities, and healthcare soaring.