What is the study Byron Donalds cites in his hurricane tax ad?
It does not study the Jolly plan, no public copy exists, and no public document from it contains a $1,000 figure.
Instead, it's a Florida State University feasibility study that looks into a different proposal to expand Citizens wind-only coverage, commissioned by the Legislature's own research office for $278,900.
The ad links to the Florida ExpertNet listing for the "Expanded Windstorm Coverage Feasibility Study," by Charles Nyce, a professor of risk management at Florida State University's College of Business. It was sponsored by the Office of Program Policy Analysis and Government Accountability, the Florida Legislature's research office, for $278,900, running from February 3 to August 31, 2026. It doesn't review Jolly's plan. Instead, it's a feasibility study of a bipartisan Florida House bill introduced in 2024 to expand Citizens Property Insurance wind-only coverage to every home in Florida. The ad misspells the name of the study and no public copy of it has been released. The Donalds campaign does not name the study behind its $1,000 number.
What the listing says
Florida ExpertNet, the state university system's research directory, lists the project with these details: title, "Expanded Windstorm Coverage Feasibility Study"; investigator, Charles Nyce, Assistant Professor, Risk Management, Real Estate and Legal Studies, College of Business, Florida State University; sponsoring agency, Office of Program Policy Analysis and Government Accountability; funding, $278,900; timeline, February 3, 2026 to August 31, 2026; research focus, insurance.
The listing does not mention David Jolly, a catastrophe fund, or a hurricane tax.
What it studies
OPPAGA is the research arm of the Florida Legislature. It commissions studies at the Legislature's direction. This one is the feasibility study of a proposal the Legislature has been debating on its own: expanding Citizens Property Insurance wind-only coverage from select coastal areas to every homeowner in the state. That concept comes from a 2024 bipartisan proposal filed by Rep. Hillary Cassel and Rep. Spencer Roach. According to one of the sponsors, under the bill, Citizens "would become the insurer of first resort for Florida homeowners seeking wind coverage." This proposal would grow Citizens, the state's insurer of last resort.
David Jolly's plan is to create a state catastrophe fund that carries hurricane risk so private insurers can price the rest of a policy competitively. They are different structures, and the study was commissioned for the first one. The plan, in plain English.
Where the $1,000 came from
The ad says: "According to a new study, a thousand dollars per Florida family every single year." No public document from the FSU study contains that figure; the study itself has not been published.
Florida Politics' reported that in the ad "the campaign does not name the study behind the $1,000" and identified former state senator Jeff Brandes's opinion column as the closest public source for the $1,000 claim. Brandes took the phrase "hurricane tax" from the assessments Citizens can already charge under existing law, not from anything in the Jolly plan.
A risk exposure estimate for a different proposal is not a $1,000-a-year tax on every family, and no one has shown the math that turns one into the other. Does David Jolly want a $1,000 hurricane tax?
Frequently asked questions
Q. Who wrote the study?
Charles Nyce, an assistant professor of risk management, real estate and legal studies at Florida State University's College of Business, according to the Florida ExpertNet listing the ad links to.
Q. Who paid for it?
The Office of Program Policy Analysis and Government Accountability, OPPAGA, which is the Florida Legislature's research office. The listed funding is $278,900.
Q. Is the study about David Jolly's plan?
No. It is the "Expanded Windstorm Coverage Feasibility Study," a study of expanding Citizens Property Insurance wind-only coverage to all Florida homes, the proposal in House Bill 13 from the 2025 session. The listing does not mention Jolly or a catastrophe fund.
Q. Can I read the study?
No public copy has been released as of this page's last review. The ad links only to the ExpertNet project listing, which carries the title, author, sponsor, funding and dates.
Q. Does the study say $1,000 per family?
No public document from it does. Florida Politics reported that the Donalds campaign did not name the study behind its $1,000 figure when asked, and that the closest public source for the number was an opinion column.
Where this comes from
The study's title, author, sponsor, funding and dates are from its Florida ExpertNet listing, the page the ad links to. House Bill 13 is on the Florida Senate's bill site and was reported by FOX 13. The reporting that the campaign did not name its study is from Florida Politics. The ad's wording is as reported by The Floridian.
This page was last reviewed on September 15, 2026 and is re-verified as the story develops.